Aleksandar Stojkov (Université Saints-Cyrille-et-Méthode de Skopje) et Thierry Warin (HEC Montréal et CIRANO) ont présenté les faits saillants de leurs travaux.
Résumé (anglais seulement)
The current Brexit debate has raised questions about the benefits and costs of EU membership. This question is obviously extremely difficult to tackle for we need to have a global and complex perspective. There is no truth in a partial analysis. In this article, we decided not to propose a general model, but to look at one of the elements that seem important for the European economies and important as well in terms of what it represents: foreign direct investments (FDI).
Indeed, FDI flows are a good indicator of how healthy an economy is (low political risks, good business environment, stability of the judicial system, etc.). If FDI flows slowdown, it is often because an economy’s outlook does not look too good. If FDI flows accelerate, it is often the sign of a higher general attractiveness of an economy.
In this context, we believe that FDI flows across Europe and between Europe and candidate countries to the European Union (EU) are a good indicator to provide a - although partial - good indication about whether benefits of the EU membership exist and are significant or not. We are not looking at the costs of an EU membership here.
